People often ask the question: what is our biggest environmental threat? Well the answer is twofold – population and consumption. It is our pursuit of needs and wants that consumes the planet’s finite resources, and this is magnified by the planet’s population.
But what about the economy? The assumption being made is that a bigger population is needed for economic growth. This does not reflect the fact that in the world rankings table based on GDP per capita, Australia lies 17th. Of the 16 countries above ours, all but two – the US and Canada – have populations smaller than ours.
There is simply no correlation at this end of the table between wealth and population size or wealth and population growth. At the other end of course, there is a high correlation between poverty and high population growth rates. Timor Leste, for instance, has the double distinction of being the world’s poorest country and having the highest fertility rate of 8.3 children per family.
But wealth is not the fundamental issue here. A population can only grow as big as its resource base allows. Australia is a big country geographically and has some significant mineral reserves. But it is largely arid, has poor thin soils and variable rainfall, subject to both droughts and flooding rains. It simply cannot sustain the same kind of population that the continental US has, which is about the same size but with 14 times the population.
And while Australia is doing well economically, almost all its environmental indicators are in decline. Most significantly, we are losing biodiversity along the coast where population growth is greatest – where urban development is cementing over natural habitat of other species. And it is just as bad on farms. We have already lost half our bird species across the grazing and cropping lands of the southern half of the continent.
In Australia, water is the resource in least supply, and thus the one that determines how big we can grow. During the prolonged drought of recent years, all our southern cities have been subject to water restrictions. Yet we are now warned that climate change will make droughts more severe and frequent. Water restrictions may become a permanent feature in many places. Perth seems to be in the grip of climate change already, with run-off declining by a third over the past 25 years. While it seems to be getting wetter in the north and centre of the country, all our southern cities are likely to be drier in the future.
On the Sunshine Coast the population issue is starting to see the light of day. All recent polls show that residents want to protect their lifestyles and the environment and see the inverse relationship with increasing population.
More people bring more pressures on ecosystems, more clearing, more pressure on water, transport and other infrastructure. And why should a local resident of 20 years be forced to pay rates for new dams and roads for these late arrivals.
SCEC would like to see this debate brought out into the general public and for politicians to make this an issue. With the regional plan predicting 144 000 people will to arrive by 2026, this debate needs to happen now.